China's Mega-Dam Puts Bangladesh's Water Future at Risk

Bangladesh faces an unprecedented existential threat as China forges ahead with a colossal $170 billion hydropower dam project on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, known locally as the Jamuna. A recent report cited by Northeast News has laid bare the catastrophic consequences this mega-project could have on the lives of over 160 million Bangladeshis, exposing the dangers of Dhaka's misplaced diplomatic priorities and naive trust in Beijing. The report serves as a wake-up call, urging Bangladesh to abandon its passive approach and adopt a robust, proactive foreign policy to safeguard its national interests.

The most profound and immediate danger lies in the dam's impact on sediment flow, a vital lifeblood for Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra's nutrient-rich sediments are the very foundation of the country's agricultural productivity, maintaining the fertility of the delta region's soil. By blocking these essential sediments, China's dam threatens to decimate Bangladesh's agricultural sector, with the potential to reduce rice yields by millions of tons annually. This would not only devastate the nation's economy but also jeopardize its food security, creating a humanitarian crisis of immense scale.

Bangladesh's leadership has been warned to scrutinize China's track record on other transboundary rivers, particularly the Mekong. Beijing's upstream dams on the Mekong have already caused immense suffering for downstream nations, including Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The lack of transparency surrounding the Brahmaputra project mirrors this secretive and unilateral approach. Despite repeated requests from Dhaka for detailed environmental impact assessments and hydrological data, Beijing has provided minimal information, hiding behind claims of 'sovereignty.' This tactic of fait accompli—building first and negotiating later, if at all—is a clear indication of China's disregard for the welfare of its downstream neighbors.

The report emphasizes that Bangladesh must fundamentally recalibrate its foreign policy to address this critical challenge. First and foremost, Dhaka must take a firm and unequivocal stance by demanding an immediate halt to the dam's construction. China's claims of 'no negative impact' ring hollow in the absence of detailed studies. Bangladesh must make it clear that proceeding without proper consultation is an unfriendly act, incompatible with the bilateral partnership China claims to value.

Furthermore, the report advocates for a strategic trilateral water-sharing framework that includes India. By uniting with India, Bangladesh can leverage the combined diplomatic weight of the two largest downstream nations to compel China's engagement. A joint front would be far more effective than isolated bilateral protests. This strategic alliance is crucial for presenting a united and credible challenge to Beijing's unilateralism.

To reduce China's leverage and strengthen its own position, Bangladesh is also urged to accelerate economic and security cooperation with India. This includes fast-tracking negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, expanding connectivity projects, and deepening defense ties. Greater integration with India's robust $3.7 trillion economy would provide Bangladesh with viable alternatives to Chinese financing and markets, thereby reducing its vulnerability and dependence on Beijing.

This is a pivotal moment for Bangladesh. The nation's future hinges on its ability to confront the stark realities of hydro-hegemony and pivot towards a foreign policy that prioritizes its national security and environmental integrity above all else. The time for naive trust is over; the time for decisive action is now.